Latest news with #economic recovery
Japan Times
19 hours ago
- Business
- Japan Times
Finance Ministry upgrades economic view on Okinawa
The Finance Ministry on Tuesday upgraded its economic view on Okinawa Prefecture, reflecting robust vehicle sales and an increase in Japanese and foreign tourists. In a quarterly report, the ministry left its view on the other 10 regions unchanged. It also adopted the same national economic assessment for the ninth straight quarter, saying that the economy remains on a gradual recovery trend. The ministry's local finance bureaus across the country reviewed regional economic situations in the past three months and reported the outcome at a meeting of local bureau heads Tuesday. By category, the government upgraded its view on private consumption in the Tohoku region and Okinawa while revising down that in the southwestern region comprising Fukuoka and two nearby prefectures. Regarding production, the ministry downgraded its view on the Hokuriku region and the Kinki region but upgraded that on Okinawa. "It is unclear how the U.S. tariff policies will affect the economy," a machinery industry company in Kinki was quoted as saying. "Corporate investment related to vehicle production may have been postponed, leading to sluggish demand for analytical instruments." On employment, the ministry left its view unchanged in all 11 regions. Looking ahead, it said the economy is expected to recover moderately, backed by improvement in employment and income conditions. It also called for a close watch on effects of persisting inflation and the U.S. trade policies.
Reuters
2 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
Argentina economic recovery to moderate in the run-up to October vote : Reuters poll
July 28 (Reuters) - Argentina's ongoing economic recovery will moderate to a normal pace in the run-up to October's mid-term legislative election, a Reuters poll showed. At the start of 2025, Latin America's No. 3 economy behind Brazil and Mexico picked up strongly following a two-year recession that capped more than a decade of poor performance. Consumption got a boost from a drastic fall in inflation thanks to President Javier Milei government's "chainsaw" drive that shored up fiscal results, while facing intense social criticism. But Argentines are cutting some spending and investment plans amid a slackening labor market, resurging currency worries and tighter credit conditions. Gross domestic product (GDP) is set to expand at a still-decent 3.4% rate in 2026 from an expected 5.0% this year, according to the median estimate of 28 analysts polled between July 21-25. Inflation is forecast to fall to 23% in 2026 from a projected 42% this year. In 2024, consumer prices shot up 237%, the worst since 1991 when Argentina was experiencing a similar economic shock. "Growth stagnated in recent months as a result of flattening real wages, increased uncertainty and the slowdown in credit from a restrictive monetary policy," said Federico Filippini, head of research at Adcap. "Next year's forecasts are heavily influenced by the upcoming election and the government's ability to advance its reform agenda." Economic activity missed analyst calls in May on yearly terms and virtually stalled against April's levels, the latest data from a leading indicator showed. Businesses are feeling the pinch of high interest rates from the adoption of a market-based money supply scheme in line with a $20 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) program signed in April. The implementation of the new framework also impacted local assets shaken by foreign exchange tensions caused by a drying up of U.S. dollar inflows from agricultural exports. "Volatility will continue, but less than in recent weeks, with interest rates moving more freely and agricultural exports remaining low until year-end," said Fausto Spotorno, economist at Orlando Ferreres. An expected $2 billion IMF disbursement should contribute to calm market anxiety before October's vote by bolstering Argentina's depleted international reserves. Unable to tap global debt markets due to the country's steep risk premium, the government has received some additional relief through special bond sales as well as bank "repo" deals. However, surging imports from Milei's economic opening keep the central bank's balance sheet under pressure, despite an increase in energy and mining exports. To address the issue, many Peronists campaigning for the October election want to return to a policy mix of devaluation, protectionism and industrial promotion. Voters rejected this approach at the ballot box in 2023, when Milei's La Libertad Avanza party won a presidential election vowing to trim the size of the state. Now his LLA has an advantage in polls over the Peronists, whose internal rivalries flared up after their leader Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner was put under house arrest for corruption. Investors hope Milei will push the "libertarian" agenda aggressively if his party wins more seats in Congress, recreating Argentina's economic transformation of the 1990s. "We may see a re-discussion of reforms that were attempted during the current legislature but failed... for example, comprehensive labor and tax reforms, potentially also a pensions reform," Citi analysts wrote in a report. "The new Congress could also give impulse to privatizations of some state companies that may require only a simple majority – Banco Nacion, (water utility) AySA and Aerolineas Argentinas." (Other stories from the Reuters global economic poll)
Bloomberg
3 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
HK Financial Chief Sees Rebound in Second-Quarter Retail Sales
Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan said he expects a bounce-back in second-quarter private consumption, following more than 12 months of decline. Retail sales increased in May from a year earlier after 14 months of declines, Chan wrote in a blog post on Sunday, indicating early signs of market stabilization. He said he was 'cautiously optimistic' on the outlook for June data.
Zawya
4 days ago
- Business
- Zawya
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Equatorial Guinea and IMF Management Approves the First and Second Reviews Under the Staff Monitored Program for Equatorial Guinea
The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded today the 2025 Article IV consultation with Equatorial Guinea. IMF Management approved in June the combined first and second reviews under the Staff Monitored Program (SMP) and a 12 month SMP extension. Equatorial Guinea registered a mild economic recovery in 2024, but the economy is projected to grow weakly and a drain on regional reserves is expected to continue in the medium term as hydrocarbon production declines. The banking sector is showing clear signs of improvement. Performance under the program has been strong, with significant reforms implemented and a substantial fiscal adjustment that met the SMP conditionality. However, contrary to longstanding commitments, the authorities decided not to publish asset declarations of public officials. The program extension will provide the authorities with an opportunity to complete an alternative governance reform measure aimed at strengthening transparency in the extractive sector. The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation for Equatorial Guinea.[1] IMF Management approved the completion of the first and second reviews and a 12-month extension of the Staff Monitored Program (SMP) for Equatorial Guinea on June 25, 2025. The authorities have consented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.[2] Equatorial Guinea registered a mild economic recovery in 2024, growing by 0.9 percent following a strong contraction in 2023. However, non-hydrocarbon GDP growth slowed in 2024 to 1.3 percent, and the economy is expected to grow only modestly in the medium term as hydrocarbon production declines. Inflationary pressures have persisted, with inflation increasing from 2.5 percent in 2023 to 3.4 percent in 2024. The banking sector showed clear signs of improvement in 2024 but remains undercapitalized. The average capital adequacy ratio of the system is marginally below the regulatory minimum, but substantially higher than at the end of 2022. The authorities' substantial fiscal adjustment in 2024 improved the non-hydrocarbon primary balance from -22.3 percent of non-hydrocarbon GDP in 2023 to -17.0 percent in 2024. Public debt decreased from 39.1 percent to 36.4 percent of GDP. Equatorial Guinea's contribution to foreign reserves at the regional central bank remained negative in 2024, following a reserve loss in 2023. The authorities planned further fiscal adjustment will aim to keep public debt below 50 percent of GDP despite the projected decline in hydrocarbon revenues and restore external balance in the medium term. The authorities have implemented substantial reforms over the past year in the context of the SMP. The significant fiscal adjustment in 2024 helped initiate stabilization of the public debt dynamics and restoration of external balance. They enacted a new tax law that broadens the tax base, prepared a plan to phase out fuel subsidies, began making payments under a new arrears clearance strategy and reformed the customs administration. The authorities took concrete steps toward restoring the health of the financial sector. In an effort to improve governance and transparency, they also developed an AML/CFT strategy and published contracts in the extractive sector and an audit of spending following the accidental explosions in Bata in 2021. The authorities' policies have allowed them to meet almost all of the SMP's quantitative conditionality as well as complete actions related to most of their structural reform program commitments in the areas of governance, financial sector development and structural fiscal policy. The authorities missed two structural benchmarks following their decision not to publish the asset declarations of public officials. The 12-month SMP extension will afford the authorities the opportunity to complete an alternative governance reform measure – the publication of an extractive industry transparency report in line with EITI standards – while continuing to implement their broader reform agenda. Executive Board Assessment[3] Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. Directors welcomed the authorities' progress on their reform agenda under the Staff‑Monitored Program, noting its 12‑month extension. They stressed, however, that the macroeconomic environment remains challenging, particularly because of the continued decline in hydrocarbon production that is placing sustained pressure on fiscal and external balances. Directors urged steadfast reform implementation going forward, particularly to address long‑standing and serious governance challenges, which would help economic diversification and lay the foundation for private sector‑led, sustainable, and inclusive growth. Directors welcomed the authorities' decision to anchor public debt to preserve debt sustainability and restore external balance. They emphasized that this will require a gradual and sustained fiscal adjustment in the face of declining hydrocarbon revenues. Directors welcomed the commitment to achieving the 2025 budget and stressed the need for continued efforts to mobilize domestic non‑hydrocarbon revenues and strengthen fiscal institutions. Improving public financial management remains essential. Directors called for ambitious social spending reform to improve social outcomes and boost human capital development. They stressed the importance of approving the social protection law to enable the building of comprehensive social safety nets. Directors commended the progress made toward restoring the health of the financial sector—including the completion of the audit of the systemic public bank and the creation of an arrears clearance strategy—but noted that vulnerabilities remain. Directors highlighted the importance of obtaining approval from the regional banking supervisor for the arrears clearance plan, further strengthening private banks' balance sheets, and implementing the financial inclusion strategy. Directors urged the authorities to redouble their efforts to substantially improve transparency and governance. They regretted the authorities' decision to step back from the long‑standing commitment to publish asset declarations of public officials, and many Directors urged the authorities to reconsider this option. Directors considered that the publication of an annual report on financial flows in the extractive sector could help demonstrate the authorities' commitment to address their governance deficit. They recommended further governance reforms to address issues highlighted in the 2019 governance diagnostic, including implementing the AML/CFT strategy. A predictable and transparent business environment with reliable and efficient application of laws is needed to create a level playing field that would attract domestic and foreign investment. It is expected that the next Article IV consultation with Equatorial Guinea will be held on the standard 12‑month cycle. Table 1. Equatorial Guinea: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2024–26 Estimates Projections 2024 2025 2026 (Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified) Production, prices, and money Real GDP 0.9 -1.6 0.5 Hydrocarbon GDP1 0.4 -6.4 -2.6 Non-hydrocarbon GDP 1.3 2.3 2.8 GDP deflator 2.5 3.0 1.0 Consumer prices (annual average) 3.4 2.9 2.9 Consumer prices (end of period) 3.4 2.9 3.5 Monetary and exchange rate Broad money 2.6 2.7 2.9 Nominal effective exchange rate (- = depreciation) … … … External sector Exports, f.o.b. -7.1 1.6 -8.7 Hydrocarbon exports -8.4 1.7 -10.2 Non-hydrocarbon exports 2.6 1.8 1.0 Imports, f.o.b. -8.9 2.2 -1.9 Government finance Revenue -14.3 0.7 -5.0 Expenditure -0.7 4.9 -1.3 (Percent of GDP, unless otherwise specified) Government finance Revenue 17.9 17.8 16.7 Hydrocarbon revenue 14.5 14.3 13.0 Non-hydrocarbon revenue 3.4 3.5 3.7 Expenditure 18.5 19.1 18.6 Overall fiscal balance (Commitment basis) -0.6 -1.3 -1.9 Overall fiscal balance (Cash basis) -1.0 -2.0 -2.6 Non-hydrocarbon primary balance2 -11.7 -12.6 -12.3 Non-hydrocarbon primary balance (as percent of non-hydrocarbon GDP) -17.0 -17.4 -16.4 Change in domestic arrears -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 External sector Current account balance (including official transfers; - = deficit) -3.2 -3.3 -4.5 Imputed Foreign Reserves (net), US$billion 0.4 0.4 0.2 Debt Total public debt 36.4 37.0 38.4 Domestic debt 28.7 28.0 27.9 External debt 7.8 9.0 10.5 External debt service-to-exports ratio (percent) 6.2 5.7 6.2 External debt service/government revenue (percent) 7.9 7.4 7.7 Memorandum items Oil price (U.S. dollars a barrel)3 79.9 67.7 63.3 Nominal GDP (billions of CFA francs) 7,740 7,846 7,959 Nominal GDP (millions of US dollars) 12,769 12,881 13,138 Hydrocarbon GDP (billions of CFA francs) 2,401 2,193 1,971 Non-hydrocarbon GDP (billions of CFA francs) 5,340 5,653 5,987 Government deposits (in percent of GDP) 17.7 17.5 17.2 Oil volume (crude and condensado, millions of barrels) 29.1 26.8 25.1 Gas volume4 (millions of bbls oil equivalent) 51.8 49.2 49.5 Total Hydrocarbon Volume (in millions of barrels of oil equivalent) 81.0 76.0 74.7 Exchange rate (average; CFA francs/U.S. dollar) 606.2 … … Sources: Data provided by the Equatoguinean authorities; and staff estimates and projections. 1 Including oil, LNG, LPG, butane, propane, and methanol. 2 Excluding hydrocarbon revenues, hydrocarbon expenditures, and interest earned and paid. 3 The reference price for crude oil is the Brent. 4 Includes LNG, propane, butane and methanol. [1] Under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country's economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board. [2] Under the IMF's Articles of Agreement, publication of documents that pertain to member countries is voluntary and requires the member consent. The staff report will be shortly published on the page. [3] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chair of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country's authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: Distributed by APO Group on behalf of International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Intercede Group And 2 Other UK Penny Stocks To Watch
Recent data indicating China's sluggish economic recovery has impacted the UK market, with the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 indices experiencing declines. Despite these broader market challenges, investors often turn to penny stocks for their potential to offer affordability and growth, even as the term feels somewhat outdated. In this article, we explore three UK penny stocks that stand out due to their financial strength and potential for future growth amidst current global economic conditions. Top 10 Penny Stocks In The United Kingdom Name Share Price Market Cap Financial Health Rating Foresight Group Holdings (LSE:FSG) £4.63 £519.47M ★★★★★★ Warpaint London (AIM:W7L) £3.96 £319.92M ★★★★★★ Van Elle Holdings (AIM:VANL) £0.385 £41.66M ★★★★★☆ Vertu Motors (AIM:VTU) £0.623 £196.23M ★★★★★☆ RWS Holdings (AIM:RWS) £0.855 £316.16M ★★★★★★ LSL Property Services (LSE:LSL) £3.01 £309.79M ★★★★★☆ Begbies Traynor Group (AIM:BEG) £1.22 £193.87M ★★★★★★ Croma Security Solutions Group (AIM:CSSG) £0.82 £11.29M ★★★★★★ Braemar (LSE:BMS) £2.40 £74.15M ★★★★★★ ME Group International (LSE:MEGP) £2.185 £825.19M ★★★★★★ Click here to see the full list of 300 stocks from our UK Penny Stocks screener. Let's review some notable picks from our screened stocks. Intercede Group Simply Wall St Financial Health Rating: ★★★★★★ Overview: Intercede Group plc is a cybersecurity company that develops and supplies identity and credential management software for digital trust across the UK, Europe, the US, and internationally, with a market cap of £98.79 million. Operations: Intercede Group generates its revenue primarily from the Software & Programming segment, amounting to £17.71 million. Market Cap: £98.79M Intercede Group plc, a cybersecurity firm, is trading at a favorable value with a Price-To-Earnings ratio of 24.4x, below the industry average. The company is debt-free and maintains strong liquidity with short-term assets of £24.5 million exceeding liabilities. Despite recent earnings declines and lower profit margins compared to last year, Intercede's Return on Equity remains high at 23.8%. Recent developments include MyID CMS enhancements supporting Enterprise Attestation and significant contract renewals worth CAD 1.5 million in Q1 2025, indicating continued demand for its credential management solutions across various sectors including U.S. federal agencies and defense manufacturers. Dive into the specifics of Intercede Group here with our thorough balance sheet health report. Gain insights into Intercede Group's outlook and expected performance with our report on the company's earnings estimates. Logistics Development Group Simply Wall St Financial Health Rating: ★★★★★★ Overview: Logistics Development Group plc operates as an investment company with a market cap of £68.28 million. Operations: Logistics Development Group plc does not report any revenue segments. Market Cap: £68.28M Logistics Development Group plc, with a market cap of £68.28 million, stands out for its debt-free status and recent transition to profitability. Despite being pre-revenue, the company reported net income of £18.82 million for the thirteen months ending December 31, 2024. Its Price-To-Earnings ratio is attractively low at 3.9x compared to the UK market average of 16.1x, suggesting potential undervaluation. While its board's average tenure is short at 2.5 years, indicating inexperience, LDG's strong liquidity position—with short-term assets (£29.7M) far exceeding liabilities (£1.1M)—provides financial stability amidst volatility concerns. Click here and access our complete financial health analysis report to understand the dynamics of Logistics Development Group. Examine Logistics Development Group's past performance report to understand how it has performed in prior years. Savannah Resources Simply Wall St Financial Health Rating: ★★★★★★ Overview: Savannah Resources Plc is involved in the exploration and development of lithium properties, with a market cap of £85.45 million. Operations: The company's revenue is primarily generated from its Portugal Lithium segment, which accounts for £1.93 million, supplemented by contributions from HQ, Corporate and Other activities totaling £1.11 million. Market Cap: £85.45M Savannah Resources Plc, with a market cap of £85.45 million, is focused on lithium exploration in Portugal but remains pre-revenue with no significant income streams. Recent equity offerings raised approximately £4.59 million, reflecting ongoing capital requirements as the company advances its Barroso Lithium Project. The project is progressing through a Definitive Feasibility Study and environmental licensing phases, supported by recent drilling results indicating potential resource expansion. Despite being debt-free and having short-term assets of £18.3 million exceeding liabilities (£3.1M), Savannah faces challenges due to its unprofitability and inexperienced board and management team with average tenures under two years. Click to explore a detailed breakdown of our findings in Savannah Resources' financial health report. Explore Savannah Resources' analyst forecasts in our growth report. Seize The Opportunity Unlock more gems! Our UK Penny Stocks screener has unearthed 297 more companies for you to here to unveil our expertly curated list of 300 UK Penny Stocks. Ready To Venture Into Other Investment Styles? This technology could replace computers: discover the 27 stocks are working to make quantum computing a reality. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Companies discussed in this article include AIM:IGP AIM:LDG and AIM:SAV. This article was originally published by Simply Wall St. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@ Effettua l'accesso per consultare il tuo portafoglio
